27.08.2026Anna Karwowska
MARKET SENTIMENT – ECIA JULY 2026
The ECIA Industry Pulse (ECST) survey for July 2026 recorded a "summer slide" of 12.5 points from the June high of 154.1, bringing the overall index to approximately 141.6. Despite this seasonal pullback, the index remains firmly above the 100-point growth threshold. Lead time pressure in the semiconductor segment continues to be flagged as the highest of any component category (as in the graph below). We do not read the July dip as a reversal of the broader demand trend – rather as a seasonal normalisation at an elevated level.
PCB MARKET – A SIGNIFICANTLY WORSENED SITUATION
Our previous alert described the PCB supply chain as structurally constrained. The most recent supplier updates, including communications received in late July and early August 2026, confirm that the situation has worsened further and is now more severe than at the time of our Q3 alert.
The market has moved firmly to a seller’s environment
PCB factories are now in a position where they can select which customers and which orders to prioritise. Shorter payment terms are being required (often below 30 days), and premiums are being charged for any volumes exceeding a customer’s allocated share. This is a fundamental reversal of the buyer-supplier relationship that most procurement teams have operated under for the past several years.
Laminate availability: the core constraint
The availability of base laminates (CCL) has become the central limiting factor in the PCB supply chain. The situation by laminate thickness is as follows:
- 1.5 mm laminate:factories are currently receiving approximately 70% of their usual allocated volumes from primary suppliers and are being forced to source the remaining 30% on the open market at significantly higher prices.
- 2.0 mm and 2.4 mm laminate:two of the main Chinese producers have halted production of these thicknesses. Remaining producers are no longer accepting new orders. This is creating acute supply bottlenecks for PCBs requiring these specifications.
- Market-level shortage:the monthly supply deficit across the industry is estimated at approximately 8 million m². Some laminate producers are accepting orders at 150–320% of their real production capacity, which is driving further price increases and customer selectivity.
- Pricing:laminate prices have approximately tripled since the start of 2025. Further increases are being applied at the start of August, with part of the laminate range now more than three times the end-2025 price level.
- Copper foil:availability is expected to tighten further in coming months, driven in part by competition from the EV battery sector. Many copper foil producers are already operating above 90% of capacity.
Commercial terms and pricing model
Alongside the material constraints, the commercial environment is hardening rapidly. Key changes now observed across multiple PCB suppliers:
- For orders where material is not yet secured, neither price nor delivery date can be confirmed more than 6–8 weeks from the point at which material is received by the factory.
- A number of factories have communicated that all confirmed orders with delivery after 1 October 2026 are subject to re-verification of material availability and pricing. Even orders placed in Q1–Q2 2026 are not exempt from repricing before delivery.
- Some factories are already declining orders for thicker PCBs, with 1.5 mm already in the at-risk category. We have already received such rejections for specific orders.
- The "ship-and-debit" pricing model – where final price is set at the point of shipment – continues to spread across the supplier base. Current offer validity window is in most cases 1–2 weeks.
Horizon and recommendation
Leading PCB suppliers expect this market trend to persist through the remainder of 2026 and it is very likely to extend into significant part of 2027. While some suppliers recommend placing orders to cover demand through at least Q1 2027, others are not yet accepting orders beyond January 2027. Flexibility in accepting alternative qualified materials, including prepregs, and – where possible – alternative production sites is the most effective practical measure to increase supply certainty.
PCB PRODUCTION CHEMISTRY
In addition to laminates, the chemistry used in PCB production is also under price pressure. One of the major European suppliers of PCB process chemicals (Peters) has announced a +8.5% price increase effective 1 August 2026, together with a variable temporary surcharge on selected cleaning agents and solvents of €2.10/kg effective 1 June 2026, updated in line with raw material costs and applying also to existing framework agreements.
SEMICONDUCTORS/CONNECTORS – ADDITIONAL PRICE INCREASES
The price increase cycle documented in our Q3 2026 alert – covering Infineon, Silicon Labs, NXP, Toshiba, ONsemi, Renesas, Microchip, STMicroelectronics, Analog Devices and Texas Instruments – remains fully in effect. These were mainly to take effect in the period June – August (applied also to confirmed backlog). Since that alert, we have received additional manufacturer communications:
- We have received information that Analog Devices (ADI) will be adjusting prices on selected product portfolios, effective September 13, 2026.
- Nexperia communicated prices increases on average on the level of 13%, effective 01.09.2026
Furthermore, in addition to the increases communicated in our previous alert (Würth +8% from 1 June, Phoenix Contact +3.5–15% from 1 July, TE Connectivity +6–12% from 1 July, JST from July), we have also received confirmation from a further major connector manufacturer Molex. The price increase of 5–30% depending on product and material type, effective 1 July 2026, covering both special and list prices. Backlog orders will be adjusted accordingly.
Based on our observations of the market, we do expect further price increases within the upcoming months.
PRICES – INCREASES RELATE TO EXISTING CONFIRMED BACKLOG (OPEN ORDERS)
As informed on numerous occasions previously - the pattern remains unchanged: price increases continue to be applied to existing confirmed backlog, not only to new orders. As mentioned above and in our previous alert – this starts also to be (more frequently) also relevant with the PCB market. With the enormous scale of price increases, as well as theirfrequency, matched with increasing lead times - please be aware that is becoming more and more inevitable that prices on open orders will change before delivery.
